Ukraine war latest: Russia commanders reportedly warned of plans for Ukraine’s Kursk incursion months in advance

Key developments on Sept. 20:
Russian commanders anticipated that Ukraine was planning an incursion into Kursk Oblast months before it occurred, the Guardian reported on Sept. 20, citing a collection of documents that Ukrainian soldiers said they had seized from abandoned Russian positions.
The documents included printed orders and handwritten entries from commanders.
Ukraine launched its cross-border incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast in early August, claiming to have seized around 100 settlements and over 1,300 square kilometers (500 square miles).
Russia appeared to have been taken by surprise by the attack, which allowed Ukrainian forces to quickly fan out across the border and move deep into Russian territory.
According to the seized documents, the authenticity of which the Guardian said they “could not independently verify,” Russian commanders had been cautioning that a potential cross-border breakthrough could occur as far back as January 2024.
While the earlier warnings were largely vague, they grew increasingly more detailed — including specific threats that Ukraine would try to seize the town of Sudzha — a warning that was realized after Ukraine captured it in August.
The seized documents also revealed that Russian commanders had attempted to beef up security by the border in Kursk Oblast and “organize additional exercises for the leadership of units and strongpoints regarding the proper organization of defenses” ahead of a possible Ukrainian attack.
Other revelations from the documents were statements from commanders about the deteriorating morale of Russian soldiers in the area.
“The analysis of the current situation regarding suicides shows that the issue of servicemen dying as a result of suicidal incidents remains tense,” one entry read.
Another entry detailed the specifics of one soldier’s suicide.
“The investigation into the incident determined that the cause of the suicide and death was a nervous and psychological breakdown, caused by his prolonged state of depression due to his service in the Russian army,” the entry read.
Commanders also wrote instructions on how to improve morale, including one suggestion that soldiers should receive daily political lessons “aimed at maintaining and raising the political, moral, and psychological condition of the personnel.”
The surviving members of a group of 14 men from Ghana who were lured into the Russian military to fight against Ukraine have appealed for help from Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast, Ghanaian news outlet TV3 reported on Sept. 19.
Russia continues to try to fill the ranks of its army with foreigners and migrant workers to avoid another round of domestic mobilization as losses from its ongoing war in Ukraine mount.
According to TV3, the men arrived in Russia on Aug. 6 and were taken to Kostroma, a city in western Russia located 300 kilometers (186 miles) northeast of Moscow.
Another man from Ghana was reportedly responsible for luring the group, promising them well-paid jobs in Russia. The men said they paid for their own plane tickets and visas and were told they would get a job working in security, but would first undergo training from the military.
The men said they then signed a contract in Russian, a language none of the men speak, and their passports were later confiscated.
Three men from the group told TV3 that they are being held against their will in Russian-occupied Donetsk Oblast and that they believe they may be the only surviving members of the original group of 14.
Other members of the group were allegedly taken away to fight and one man escaped, but his whereabouts are unknown.
“We are presently in Ukraine…we have no fighting experience,” one man told TV3. “We are pleading, we want to return home.”
The families of the 14 men have appealed to the Ghanian Police Headquarters for help, TV3 journalist Godwin Asediba posted on X on Sept. 20.
Similar cases of foreigners being lured into the Russian army have been reported in India, Egypt, Nepal, and Cuba, despite efforts from these countries to clamp down on the smuggling rings and recruitment schemes that drive men to Russia.
The first cohort of Ukrainian pilots have completed Alpha Jet training in France, the French Armed Forces announced on Sept. 20.
The French Air Force has been training Ukrainian pilots since March 2024 as part of the international coalition to provide Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets, which was founded at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023.
Kyiv has been calling for its partners to provide F-16s jets since the very first year of the full-scale war in order to bolster its fleet of aircraft, which is otherwise made up of Soviet-made planes.
While Ukraine has been promised nearly 80 jets from the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, and Norway, the training of new pilots has been considered one of the main bottlenecks for expanding Ukraine’s F-16 capabilities.
The French Armed Forces wrote on X that the Alpha Jet training program shows “France’s firm support for the Ukrainian war effort,” but did not provide further details.
French newspaper Le Monde reported in June that the French Air Force had committed to training 26 Ukrainian pilots.
This number is significant as the French Air Force usually certifies around 30 pilots a year, after up to five years of training.
The program began in March with 10 Ukrainian pilots, who are training using Alphajets fitted with a panel that simulates the instruments in the cockpit of an F-16, Le Monde said.
A group of Ukrainian pilots also recently arrived in Romania to start training on F-16 fighter jets, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said on Sept. 12.
Other Ukrainian pilots have undergone training in the U.S. or Denmark, though Copenhagen said it would not provide instructions to Ukrainian aviators on its territory past 2024.
Ukraine’s drone strike on the arms depot in Russia’s Tver Oblast destroyed two to three months’ worth of munitions, Estonian Colonel Ants Kiviselg, head of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center, said on Sept. 20.
Ukraine launched an overnight attack on Sept. 18 against one of the largest arsenals in Russia, opened in 2018 and built to withstand a nuclear explosion.
According to Estonian news outlet ERR, Kiviselg commented on the strike during an Estonian Defense Ministry press conference.
Ukraine was able to strike the depot because some of the ammunition was not located inside bunkers, causing a chain of explosions that destroyed 30,000 tons of ammunition to explode, Kiviselg said.
“At an average rate of military action, Russia fires 10,000 shells per week. That is, a two-to-three-month supply of ammunition,”
“We will see the consequences of this loss at the front in the coming weeks,” Kiviselg said.
The arms depot in Topolets stored ballistic missiles, including Iskanders, anti-aircraft missiles, artillery ammunition, and KAB guided bombs, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine told the Kyiv Independent.
Ukraine has long suffered a disadvantage in terms of ammunition supplies compared to Russia.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi told CNN on Sept. 5 that Russian forces currently fire shells at a ratio of around 2:1 to 2.5:1 to Ukrainian forces.
Norway’s civil and military support program for Ukraine, known as the Nansen program, will be extended until 2030 and will be increased by a further 5 billion kroner ($475 million) this year, Oslo announced on Sept. 20.
The Nansen program will now have a total value of 135 billion kroner ($12.8 billion). The program initially was set to spend 75 billion kroner ($7 billion) from 2023 to 2028.
Oslo’s decision will result in an additional $5.7 billion in Norwegian support for Ukraine until 2030, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on X.
Zelensky said he was grateful to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and all political parties in the Norwegian Parliament.
“This unwavering commitment will help Ukraine protect lives, defend freedom, and strengthen our resilience,” Zelensky said.
Norwegian news outlet Nettavisen said that the decision to expand the Nansen program came after the government “received massive criticism because Norway’s support for Ukraine has lagged behind, compared to other countries.”
Almost all Norwegian opposition parties demanded a significant increase in support for Ukraine, Nettavisen said.
Norway is ranked 12th in the world in terms of the amount of aid provided to Ukraine, having so far provided $2.6 billion in humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to the Kiel Institute’s Ukraine Support Tracker.